Market Briefing: November 04, 2026
Top story
US midterm results pointing to a divided Congress, with Democrats taking the House, became the day's main global development. Stocks and the dollar slid as investors reassessed AI-linked bets, while gold firmed as yields softened. Oil eased on prospects of US-Iran mediation. The election outcome also rippled into specific markets: crypto sentiment soured on election-driven policy worries, and Brazil's post-election market shock showed up in higher inflation and interest-rate forecasts, with economists pushing out expectations for meaningful easing.
Market reaction
The direction of travel was clear even where magnitude varied. US equities fell, with the dollar lower alongside them, as the divided-Congress result prompted a rethink of AI-linked positions. Gold firmed as yields softened, and oil eased modestly on mediation prospects.
Single-stock earnings kept the US tape lively despite the macro drag. Several tech and industrial names beat and raised — including AMD, Super Micro, Eaton, DuPont, and Arista Networks — while Coupang, eBay, and Marathon Petroleum also beat. A few strong reports still saw shares slip, a pattern visible in Amgen and Pfizer, where beats or raised guidance failed to lift the stock. Booking's guidance clouded an otherwise solid beat, Shopify dropped sharply, and Grab jumped violently.
Regionally, equities diverged sharply. China-linked and Indian assets climbed on policy support and strong bank credit growth, while Brazil and Philippine assets fell on sticky inflation and delayed easing expectations.
Asia Pacific
China equities found a fresh policy cushion. The central bank cut the relending rate for share buybacks and said applications to the scheme have topped a large threshold — a signal that corporate demand for the facility is substantial. Alibaba, and China-focused ETFs tracking the mainland large-cap and broad market, rose on the news.
Korea told a different story. Chip names slumped after reports that US officials held up equipment approvals for SK Hynix's China expansion, weighing on Korean exposure and the chipmaker itself.
Taiwan's financial regulator unveiled draft stablecoin rules limiting issuance to bank-backed firms and other designated institutions, lifting Taiwan-linked assets. Elsewhere in the region: Indonesia's regulator announced fresh sanctions over alleged stock market violations, pressuring Indonesian exposure. India's State Bank of India posted a solid rise in quarterly profit with strong loan growth, reinforcing a healthy domestic credit backdrop and lifting Indian assets. Turkey finalized the off-exchange block liquidation of BIST 30 holdings from liquidating funds, transferring shares to domestic institutions with a lockup. Thailand gained on news that GAC's first overseas battery pack plant began production there, a concrete EV supply-chain localization step. Singapore's UOB posted weaker-than-expected profit, but record fee and wealth-management income and a constructive outlook supported Singapore-linked assets.
Europe
French equities stayed heavy on fiscal strain and rising borrowing costs, with the AI investment boom cited as a factor in those rising costs. Germany split between a pharma heavyweight raising its outlook and deepening auto-sector job cuts and wage walkouts.
Swiss exposure fell after Barry Callebaut issued weaker-than-expected profit guidance for its coming fiscal year. Poland's political standoff escalated into a renewed challenge to the central bank chief, adding policy uncertainty ahead of the rate-setting meeting and pressuring Polish assets.
Americas
Canada stayed in wait-and-see mode, with the loonie easing from a six-week high ahead of the jobs report. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said current fiscal policy is not hindering the inflation fight and repeated that additional rate hikes may still be needed, which supported Canadian exposure.
Brazil was the region's weak spot: post-election market shock fed into higher inflation and rate forecasts, pushing out easing expectations and dragging Brazil-linked ETFs lower. The Philippines also fell after its central bank signaled policy will stay tight, with no clear timetable for rate cuts and higher inflation assumptions.
Policy / macro
Central banks dominated the policy tape. China deepened equity-market support through the buyback relending cut. Australia's Reserve Bank raised its cash rate in a split decision, lifting Australian exposure. The Bank of Canada kept a tightening bias on the table. The Philippines signaled an extended hold. Poland's central bank faces renewed political pressure. On the fiscal-geopolitical side, the US announced plans to terminate annual military aid to Israel by the end of 2026, creating an estimated fiscal deficit, while Egypt returned to international debt markets with a bond reopening and Saudi Arabia's Aramco reported a sharp rise in quarterly profit alongside pipeline expansion work.
What this news leaves open
- How far investors rotate out of AI-linked bets under a divided Congress, and whether the dollar's slide extends.
- Whether US-held equipment approvals for SK Hynix's China expansion are resolved, and what that means for Korean chips.
- Whether China's cheaper buyback funding translates into sustained corporate buying.
- Whether Brazil's pushed-out easing expectations harden into a longer tightening cycle, and how Philippine policy evolves alongside.
- What Canada's jobs report reveals about the Bank of Canada's tightening bias.
- How Poland's central bank leadership standoff resolves ahead of its rate meeting.
Ezbrisk weighs each event against the market reaction and publishes a verdict with an overreaction reading. How the methodology works